The price of regular gas in Ely is pushing $4 per gallon and diesel is close to $4.50.

Experts of every stripe regurgitate their reasons for the spike in prices. But this runaway price of gas seems to shore up M. King Hubbert's “peak oil” theory and bell curve.

Hubbert, a geologist with Shell Oil, came up with the peak oil theory in 1947 and published it in 1956. It's been uncanny in its accuracy.

According to the theory, when oil production is charted for a specific geographical location, the production line starts at zero and then gradually climbs as the new wells come on line. Then as more wells are drilled and add their output, the charted production line sharply increases, forming the left side of the bell curve. As more wells are drilled and technological improvements are made, production of the still plentiful oil reaches its peak -- shown as a long plateau at the top of the bell curve -- for as long as there's abundant oil remaining.

But eventually, after about half of the easily recoverable oil is depleted, production starts to slide off, forming the right, declining side of the classic bell curve.

Hubbert came to believe his theory would apply equally well to the entire country and even the world, and not just to individual oil fields. He estimated that peak oil in the lower 48 states from conventional sources would be reached sometime between 1965 and 1970.

That verified peak was actually reached in 1970.

He also estimated that world production would peak within a half a century of publication of his theory -- some time around 2006. He noted that on the worldwide scale, politics or natural disasters, could stretch out and flatten the bell-shaped curve.

Analysts still are arguing if we've reached global peak oil. But if we haven't, we're on the verge.

Peak oil doesn't suggest we are running out of the fossil fuel. On the contrary, there's about half of the reserves remaining. But it no longer is the type of oil that can be easily retrieved. The remaining oil will be much more expensive to extract and gas will be priced accordingly.

The Bakken Formation

That's certainly true of deep-water wells on the continental shelf, or the oil sands of Canada or even the massive Bakken Formation shale oil fields under Montana and North Dakota.

Some oil investment analysts suggest the Bakken Formation contains 500 billion-plus barrels of untapped oil, which could provide the United States with enough oil, they claim, for the next 40 years. But the USGS calculates it to be somewhat less -- around 4.3 billion barrels.

The Bakken Formation has been known for some time and the USGS surveyed it in 1995. But the Energy Policy & Conservation Act of 2000 required the USGS to again assess domestic petroleum basins.

The new USGS study, released in early April, estimated “technically recoverable” oil in the Bakken Formation to be 25 times what USGS estimated in 1995.

The Bakken Formation is the largest "continuous" oil accumulation ever assessed by the USGS. It is estimated to be larger than all other current USGS oil assessments in the lower 48 states combined. A "continuous" oil accumulation means the oil is dispersed throughout a single geologic formation and not as separate, localized deposits.

The Bakken also is larger than the largest continuous oil field in Saudia Arabia and contains more barrels than all of the oil under Alaska.

The next largest continuous oil accumulation in the U.S. is the Austin Chalk in Texas and Louisiana. It has an estimated 1 billion of barrels of technically recoverable oil.

“Technically recoverable oil” means able to be recovered with today's technology. That's only been true of the Bakken Formation for the past few years. It took breakthroughs in horizontal drilling technology to make the Bakken profitable enough for development.

Gas will get more expensive.

But worldwide, there's still plenty of oil out there -- it's just not cheap oil.

The Bakken Formation will produce light, sweet crude oil, the cheapest to refine. It won't, however, be as cheap to extract as in the days of the Oklahoma or Texas oil boom gushers.

That's the lasting effect of peak oil. Don't expect to see oil ever sell for less than $100 per barrel again.

Yet when the pundits discuss the price of gas, peak oil is hardly ever cited.

Instead we hear a bevy of accusations annually as the price of gas climbs out of its winter doldrums, heading for the higher-priced summer driving season.

You've heard it all before. The usual suspects; the same accusations.

Big Oil is gouging us. Or environmentalists are blocking more offshore drilling and won't give oil companies access to ANWAR. Or that environmentalists haven't allowed construction of new refinieries in the U.S. in 25 years.

And what about that Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Why doesn't the Administration cut loose of some of all that oil to help drive prices down?

Certainly, John McCain's plan, echoed by Hillary Clinton, to call a federal gas tax holiday over the summer may reduce the cost by a few cents for a short time. But mighten it also increase demand and end up pushing prices even higher.

And then there's our favorite bad guy when it comes to oil -- Saudia Arabia. Why don't the Saudis open that spigot just a little more and increase supplies to lower prices?

The Saudis have been upgrading their production capacity the past few years to meet increased demand in Asia. But according to a Wall Street Journal report, the Saudis are reluctant to continue that expansion because of concern about biofuels and other non-carbon sources of energy will eventually harm the price of crude oil. So why should they increase capacity?

But is that their reason or do they see a peak in their potential capacity?

The number two exporter of oil in the world is Russia.

Its production was skyrocketing just a few years ago. In 2003, Russian oil production increased 12 percent. But the past year, Russian oil production has increased a more anemic 2.5 percent, and Russian politicans and energy officials have voiced concerns production may even decline this year.

That's starting to sound a lot like Hubbert's peak.

But you won't hear much about peak oil as the TV pundits kick around those all-too-usual suspects. Big Oil, the do-gooder environmentalists and the government could and should do a lot. But how much can they do to actually bring down the price of gas?

Next week, let's take a look at that.